Staff Blog
Why Ryan Howard is Worth the Money
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| via the Washington Post |
Yesterday the official MLB arbitration numbers came out. The
headline, both locally and nationally, was Ryan Howard’s request for $18
million – an even $4 million above the Phillies counter offer, and more
than double the next highest request (Prince Fielder, at $8 mil).
Fans and media types both seem to believe that the Big Man’s
request is a bit too high. Scott Lauber laid out the basic argument against here:
Howard is 29 years old and will be 32 when he’s eligible for free agency
after the 2012 season. And I know that he’s a defensive liability at first base
and has flirted with 200 strikeouts for the past two seasons. And I look at Mo Vaughn broke down after
his 30th birthday and wonder if Howard, who has a similar body type, will do
the same.
And the masses at Phillies
Nation, Beerleaguer,
The
Good Phight and The
Level all seem to agree that the number is out of line. WSBGM’s took the
argument a little bit further – Carson
called Howard a “money grubbing whore.”
I’m not so sure. Full explanation ATJ
I’m not blind to the fact Ryan is a
liability on the defensive side of the ball, struggles against lefties, and Ks
too much, but if the Phillies want to go year-to-year with former MVP this is
what they have to expect. Here is the deal with arbitration: Howard has elected
to bypass long-term security for an immediate payday. If he wants to make that choice, the Phils have to accept it and pony up.
Howard is still 29, and if he can put together the
type of season he did last year (he was second in the MVP, and we were all pissed that someone would even consider
him lower than that) he is worth the type of seemingly outrageous money he’s looking for. The reason is a lot more obvious than we’re making it out to be: yes he has flaws, but he’s also really good.
And we mean really good – in-the-conversation-for-’best-power-ever’ good. He’s unarguably one of the game’s most feared and respected players. He’s got a
ROY and an MVP to his credit, he was the fastest player to 150 homeruns in the
history of baseball, he had more home runs in his second season than anyone who
has ever played, and he had more home runs in the first 1000 MLB at bats than
anyone, ever. In his MVP year he hit .313, had 58 HRs, 158 RBIs, an OBP of
.425, a slugging percentage of .659. He wasn’t a one-year wonder – he followed
it up year with 47 HRs, 136 RBIs, and an OBP of .392 in 2007. It was considered a
down year and he was 5th in the MVP voting. Hell, last year was considered a down year and he led the league in home runs by 8 and RBI by 22. Whatever you think about him in June, come September you’re talking about him and the MVP in the same sentance.
Or, just think about it like this: 80% of his average production over the last three years would have lead the league in both long balls and runs batted in last year. When it comes to raw power, Ryan Howard is a full fifth again better than everyone else.
On top of all of that, he’s charismatic, and obviously so. In a league without a salary cap the ability to sell tickets, jerseys, and team merchandise isn’t a negligible matter – the more Ryan Howard brings in the more the team can spend. There aren’t a hell of a lot of players on the cover of video games and national magazines – Howard is. Since we’ve now entered a new world where it appears the Phils are no longer cheap, this matters.
The risk with Howard, and it isn’t a small one, is that his skill set – power and, um …
power? – is one that historically doesn’t hold up forever. Both Baseball
Prospectus and baseball-reference.com compare him to several other players with
high but brief peak periods of production: Mo Vaughn, Cecil Fielder and Travis
Hafner, among others. Historically, big-bodied guys with limited auxiliary
skills deteriorate quickly. Baseball Prospectus, which is better at predicting
this type of thing than we are, said this about the Howard type: “Their
legs just couldn’t carry that much mass for very long, and around 30 their
defense plummeted, their playing time dropped due to nagging injuries, and
their singles dried up and disappeared.” It’s a fair point, but one that has a lot more to do with 2009 than they do 2013.
If the Phillies want to make the bet that that sharp decline is going to happen to Ryan, the price they have to pay is a high year-to-year salary with little risk. How high? Well, maybe $18 million. If the team doesn’t want to pony up long term – and to be blunt, they don’t – that is probably a price worth paying.
[...] via the Washington Post Yesterday the official MLB arbitration numbers came out. The headline, both locally and nationally, was Ryan … Originally posted here: Why Ryan Howard is Worth the Money [...]
Homeruns and rbi are great, but they’re not everything. Howard ranked 28th in OPS last season, and has seen his defense worsen while his OPS, walks, and average continue to fall.
Carson, I agree all of those are great reasons to get in bed with Howard for 4,5,6 years, but home runs and RBI are something, as is the fact that he puts people in the seats, sells jerseys nationally, and cleans up a lineup that is annually amongst the best in baseball.
Also, part of this was the fact that everyone seems to be taking the opposite stand and at the least I feel there are too sides to the debate.
Cheers