Staff Blog
Week 14 NFL Lines
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I’m a bit confused about this whole Barry O’Bomber
Blackberry kafuffle. He’s the cot-damn
president elect, if man wants a Blackerry well, get the man a Blackberry and
hold it to the same ‘no government files on your personal device’ rules that
everyone else’s PDA is held to. And
another thing that grinds my gears – how come adults have to shave all the
time? I like being unshaven, I think
it’s a good look, I don’t think it reflects on poor hygiene or grooming habits,
and unlike something like rocking sneakers in professional settings, shouldn’t
be as universally discouraged as it is now.
There is no way you can tell
me that a little stubble is less professional than a mustache. None.
Anyway, I’m bringing this up for a couple reasons: I wanted
to gripe about having to shave, and I’ve been thinking about conventions that
don’t work anymore and how tied we are to them, especially in sports. For example, if there are 20 seconds left in
a quarter and an NBA team grabs a rebound they’ll toss it to their playmaker at
the top of the key, he’ll dribble aimlessly for 15 seconds, then make a play at
the basket. Really? That’s every teams’ best play? Even if you are obsessed with one-shot it’s
not that hard to run a play that
takes a certain amount of time to execute.
Standard positions always confuse me too. With the influx of athletic quarterbacks
coming into the league how come no team sets up two QBs in the backfield? Brad
Smith and Antwan Randle El were
turned into wideouts, why not turn guys like that into QB/RB hybrids? Split them both in shotgun, snap to one and
create havoc. The other wouldn’t even
have to be a stud blocker like standard tailbacks are – instead of keeping them
in the pocket they could just roll them to the opposite side on the field behind
the QB, thereby either taking a defender with them or giving the quarterback an
option that would keep the pass play alive.
Would this work? I mean, it can’t
be worse than Jordan Palmer, right?
Onto the picks …
As always I’ll be deciding on which team I prefer,
laying out the my logic for preferring them (however fractured it may be) and
going in the other direction. My pick
will always be the first one listed. Home team in caps, “over” if I’m picking a
home team and “at” if it’s a roader. All lines as of Thursday morning.
And if these picks and you want a refund you should probably
know that I
don’t pay people who I can beat up.
Cincy (+14) over
INDIANPOLIS
Indianapolis
has literally won one game by more
than six points, and only two by more than four – they could easily be under .500 and already
eliminated. A smart man would probably
deduce that either they’re lucky and overrated or they’re a veteran team who
just doesn’t care about the point spread. Me? I think they’re due.
Plus Indy my dark horse Super Bowl pick – they’re the
Spurs of the NFL.
Houston (+6) at GREEN BAY
5-7 record be damned, Aaron
Rodgers is a ballplayer and this Green
Bay team can play. Seeing as they’re playing in the
wide-open NFC North they still might have a chance to prove it, but they’re
going to have to make some sort of stand on Sunday if they want to.
As for Houston, Andre Johnson
is nice and Steve Slaton is turning
out to be legit, but that whole Matt
Schaub experiment seems to be backfiring in a pretty big way. Poor Texans, always with bad QBs.
FWIW, I just wrote a couple paragraphs about how the whole
‘NFL running backs can be found anyway’ logic is malarkey. I argued that you can find guys to put up a nice game or two,
that because the NFL is predicated on scouting, and before there is a good book
on a back he can break off for a game or two; but when push comes to shove most
of the top backs in the league were drafted in the first or second round. I compared them to QBs, who seemed to come
out of nowhere. That was, of course,
until I switched the stats from ‘QB rating’ to ‘yards’ and realized that damn
near every QB putting up big yardage numbers was a top pick, and that my theory
was nonsense. There is a lesson here
somewhere …
Cleveland (+14) at TENNESSEE
Josh Cribbs has
been taking snaps at QB in practice this week (not a joke). Not that that really matters, when Ken Dorsey is your QB1 your backup can
only be so much worse.
The Titans are too polished not to run through bad teams,
and ever since Braylon Edwards had
both of his thumbs broken (something had to have happened) the Browns
qualify. Here’s my question though, why
would any team ever have anyone but a kid as their 3rd QB? If he’s suiting up your season regularly your
season is pretty much ruined anyway, why not throw your fans a bone and give
them something to get overly excited about for a couple days? If you’re competitive and your 1 and 2 guys
go town you can just pick up a vet anyway – I’m pretty confident Vinny
Testaverde ain’t busy.
Washington (+5.5) at BALTIMORE
Shocking discovery of my week: Le’Ron McClain’s name is actually “Le’Ron McLain.”
Seriously? I’ve seen him play
practically every week, I’ve owned him on both
my fantasy teams (talking about my fantasy football team alert: despite
drafting both Tom Brady and Harris
Smith I’m somehow enjoying the bye in the one league that matters. While Ruben and Juice battle for the right to
get demolished by Tyler Thigpen, Dom Hixon and the rest of the Pretty
Boys, I’m sitting back and giving the Good Guys a week to rest up – it’s good
to be on top.) I’ve been saying, thinking, and writing ‘McClain‘ all year and now I feel like a moron. Serves me right for not just going with his nickname, I suppose.
As for the game itself: Washington is falling apart and BMore is
not. Without Clinton Portis to help him out expect Jason Campell to seriously struggle in the battle for
I-whatever-it-is.
Atlanta (+3) at NEW ORLEANS
Drew Brees: another guy who needs to get out
of the MVP discussion. Yes, he throws
darts and yes he knows his personnel, but the wee little guy also
single-handedly loses games for them and couldn’t bring them back when it
mattered against Tampa (who is secretly really good) last week. Still, they’re at home and as a rule you
should probably go with the home team in any of these NFC South matchups.
SAN
FRANCISCO (+4) over New York Jets
This may be the most confusing line of the week. Shaun
Hill to Issac Bruce is still the
9ers best offensive combination, correct?
I think last week’s Jets loss was a fluke, I’d be backing Favre and em with another touchdown on
the spread.
TORONTO (PK) over Miami
I know Miami never throws (by
the way, will everyone championing Chad
Pennington for MVP please just shut
up?) so they should be favored in a smash-mouth grind-it-out cold weather game,
but Toronto fans are both notoriously crazy and
trying to prove they deserve a football team. They’re going to be like the returning frat
guy proving he’s still got it by drunkenly throwing himself at disgusted
freshmen girls – it might not be effective it’s a bad combination for the road team.
Here’s my question for the game though: does Ricky Williams wear sleeves? It’s an unspoken NFL rule that running backs
should never cover their arms but Ricky has broken a couple other of
those rules (don’t wear a dress on the cover of a national magazine, don’t
admit you prefer Indonesia and smoking weed more than football before you’re absolutely sure that pretty signing
bonus of yours will remain yours in the case you quit football, for example)
and it’s going to be pretty cold up in Maine North.
UPDATE: I’m a moron, ignore everything I just wrote: they’re
playing in a dome. Pussies.
Jacksonville (+6.5) at CHICAGO
Yeah I think I’m probably going to shy away from “the worst
team” Fred Taylor has ever played on. Fred Taylor has been in the league for something like 28 years, and not
all of them have been good, for him to say something that is pretty damning.
In a related note, Jack Del Rio’s agent is in close
contacts with teams in need of coordinators next year.
As for the Bears, don’t they have to be a little worried that
their running back leads the league in touches by a good amount? Matt
Forte is a strong dude, but he’s quite a bit smaller than the guys crushing
him every week and the Bears need him to win in the Windy City.
Kansas
City (+10) at DENVER
Jay Cutler is the greatest quarterback who has ever lived -
he can throw the ball 400 yards straight threw defensive backs. This powerade commercial was
actually shot with real footage of his throws, and no one will ever surpass
his excellence. Just ask him, he’ll you
himself.
Seriously though, kid throws bullets – he’d be a fun guy to
have in your hometown.
Other thoughts on this game
- The NFL is a league where Matt Cassel and Peyton Hillis
start, but Matt Leinart and Darren McFadden look like some busts – nobody knows anything. - Speaking of Hillis, how do the Broncos go from running
back by committee to handing all the
carries to the 3rd (4th?) string guy? I know the guys ahead of him went down, but
you’d think they’d be splitting it up a little bit. - Tyler Thigpen is my starting quarterback in fantasy and
I’m totally happy with that. I’ve also
yet to see him play outside of highlights. - Worst defense in the league against one of the highest
octane offenses? Look for all the
Broncos to put up some numbers
Minnesota at DETROIT
(off the board)
I’d pick this game, but I’ve been suspended for diuretics -
my full pick will be available as soon as I obtain my restraining order on CP.
SEATTLE (+5) over New England
I can’t tell if New England hit a bad matchup or got exposed
last week against Pittsburgh. If it’s the later, this team is trouble. Still, Seattle
is 2-10 and Matt Hasslebeck isn’t that good.
ARIZONA (+14) over St. Louis
Another week, another L for St. Louis – they’re awful. That said, I think Arizona got exposed and they know it. I don’t know what happened to Tim Hightower, but he’s been brutal
recently. Without him, they’re more
one-dimensional than the Birds are (granted, it’s a hell of a dimension). I was there Thursday, and I’m just not seeing
a true blowout.
Dallas (+3) at PITTSBURGH
Ryan Clark, the guy who nearly
decapitated Wes Welker last week, is an absolute goon. He now doubles as one of my favorite players
- I wonder if he’s got something in store for T.O.
The game itself should be a classic - this is a archetypical three-line; I have no
idea who is the better team. I do know
which one is a better bet for the playoffs though, check out Dallas’
schedule the rest of the way: Pittsburgh, New York Football Giants, Baltimore and Philly. It’s entirely possible this Dallas team loses out.
CAROLINA (-3) over Tampa Bay
The Bucs are really going to miss Monte when he joins Layla in Tennessee.
Has any unit been as strong for as long as Tampa Bay’s
D? It’s unreal. DeAngelo Williams might get his, but Delhomme is going to look lost out
there.
NEW YORK
FOOTBALL GIANTS (-7) over The Birds
Everyone has been saying all week that the whole Plax Burress incident isn’t going to
affect the Giants. I want to take a
minute to try to explain how moronic that is.
Yes, the Giants are a run-first team, and yes, both Dom Hixon and Amani Toomer
are serviceable NFL wideouts, but Plax is 6′5″ and awesome. Remember the game against the Eagles last
year? You know this game:
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| that just isn’t legal |
They won that game because when Eli was in trouble he just
put his head down and threw a bomb up to his wideout. Don’t get me wrong, Eli has certainly improved
and gained trust in his other options since then but Plax was a serious weapon,
not having him is a real shot in the Giants’ thigh.
kafluffle – sweet!