As I laid out Thursday, I’ve decided to start betting
against myself for the balance of the season. 
I’ll be deciding on which team I prefer, laying out the my logic for preferring them
(however fractured it may be) and going in the other direction.

Let’s get right to it.

As always, my pick will always be the first one listed. Home
team in caps, “over” if I’m picking a home team and “at” if it’s a
roader.  All lines as of Thursday morning.

CLEVELAND
(-3) over Texans

There are two reasons someone from outside of Houston or Cleveland
would watch this game; the first is the Mario Williams / Joe Thomas matchup, where the
best player from the 2006 draft squares off against the best player from the
2007 edition.  The second is gambling,
which makes this an especially important play.

Cleveland
is coming off a short week and an unconvincing win.  Sage
Rosenfels is a backup quarterback
playing starters minutes, but he’s not going to gift-wrap three interceptions
in the first quarter like Trent Edwards did – especially considering that the
Texans are going to be focused on the ground game for the cold Ohio
showdown.  Cleveland’s D-line is wearing down, and Steve
Slaton has shown he can break off long runs and is going to cause trouble for Brady and the rest of the Browns.   The Texans are the pick, which means we’re
going with the Browns.

Buffalo (-3) at KANSAS CITY

If Kansas City
does one thing well it’s take the ball away from other teams, the Bills are on
the other end of that spectrum which is going to spell disaster to an
underperforming Bills team. 

One thing I will say for the Chiefs: who would have ever
guessed that Tyler Thigpen would be regarded as the better
quarterback in this game back when Trent
Edwards was lighting the world on
fire in the beginning of the season?

TENNESSEE
(-5½) over the Jets

Tennessee
needs to run and the Jets stop the run as well as anyone in the league.  Bad combination for a now-Kerry Collins led offense.  

On the other side of the ball Farve is
starting to get into a groove, and you know he lives for big moments (although
that could also mean a couple picks for Cortland
Finnegan). The chance to take down an undefeated team certainly
qualifies.

I just wish this game were 10 games ago so that starting QBs
could go out and get wasted together
postgame.  Oh, drunks.

MIAMI
(-1) over the Pats

Yikes, does anyone actually believe that Miami is going to win this game? Cassell is a different QB since the
last time they met, and the Pats’ injury at LB actually made them faster there
(not better mind you), which should help counter some of the Wildcat.

Cassell won’t
throw for 400 yards again, but he also won’t look as lost as he did the last
time these two teams faced off, and Belichick is going to come into this one
with guns drawn.  

DALLAS
(-10½) over San Fran

So if Tony Romo takes
a liking to a homeless fella and drags him into a movie theater he’s a stand-up
citizen, but if Joe Sixpack does the
same thing he’s a serial killer? Bullshit.

(that said, Romo’s
hand is still broken, that team looked awful for three quarters last Sunday and
No-Pants Singletary has the 49ers
playing hard – a 10.5 line is a field goal too high)

DETROIT (+8) over Tampa Bay

The 0-16 dream lives on! 
You can bet that entire stadium is going to be cheering for the winless
season hard, what a way to cap the Matt Millon era.

Chicago (-8) at ST. LOUIS

Do you really want to take a banged-up Kyle Orton to win by multiple scores on the road?  Me neither, especially after seeing what Green Bay did to them
last week.

JACKSONVILLE (-3) over Minnesota

This seems like one of those classic ‘better conference wins’
games, with the only problem being we have no idea who is better – the AFC or
the NFC.  

Minnesota
should be able to control the Jags’ offensive point of attack, and their big
LBs should take the one thing the Jags do best – run the football – away from
them.  

On the offensive side, when you got Purple Jesus getting the handoffs it hardly matters that you’re
one-dimensional.  This is a team that should be using the Wildcat.

DENVER (-10) over Oakland

These teams hate
each other, that isn’t conducive to a blowout.  Also, what is it about the Shanahan / Davis
rivalry that makes it so compelling?  These
two teams could face each other 16 times a year I’d still check in pre-game
through post-game.

ATLANTA (-1) over Carolina

The Atlanta
offense is built around Mike Turner, everything else comes from
that.  Against bad defenses that’s great -
Turner can run over bad tacklers and
past the good ones – but against good defenses it means you’re putting the game
in hands of a rookie QB (a poised, talented rookie QB, but a rookie QB all the
same) and a set of mediocre options.  

Carolina
has a good defense.

SEATTLE (+3½) over Washington

The NFC East is still good, dammit.  Plus Shaun Alexander is good for at least 100
yards in his return to the rainy city – he still gets to run behind Walter
Jones and Steve Hutchinson there, right?

ARIZONA (+3½) over The New York Football Giants

Arizona
may be on a three game winning streak, but all the wins have come against the
middling AFC west.  The Giants are
playing like the best team in Football, they should come in there, smack the
Cardinals in their mouths and call it day.

Seeing the old Eli Manning / Kurt Warner competition renewed
should be fun though, so there is that. (Speaking of dumb, overhyped QB competitions, how great would be it if the Cardinals met the Titans in the Superbowl.  What? You say, what history do Kerry Collins and Kurt Warner have? None. I’m talking about the backups.)

SAN DIEGO
(-3) over Indy

The Indianapolis Colts might win the damn Superbowl.  Nobody put them away when they had the chance,
and now they keep on rising.  Unlike past
years, I’m really enjoying it, this game was the hardest one to pick against
myself.

New Orleans (-2½) at GREEN BAY

And this was the second hardest.  Green
Bay isn’t losing at home on a Monday night.  After just abusing the Bears last week they’re
brimming with condidence and running on all cylinders.  

BALTIMORE
(-1) over Philly

Aa, I can finally get away from my need to pick Philly every
week – at least this new formula will give me one game.

I have a couple things to take care of to get ready for tonight’s 76ers game, so you might of heard the last of me this afternoon.

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