Between the Phillies coming to play, Cubbies doing Cubbie
things, Grant Balfour not backing down, the much-anticipated VP debate and two
need episodes of It’s Always Sunny
you can be forgiven if you’ve let your interest in week five of the NFL wane a
little bit.  Still, it’s Friday and the
Phillies are off.  Time to gear up the
weekend. 

I had a rant about Eskimos and the Sapir-Whorf Hypothesis,
but chances are it would fall outside of the systemic relationship we all have
with football, and we inevitably wouldn’t be able to fully comprehend it, so
I’m leaving it for another day. 

Eskimos: not going to be talked about today

I lost another Monday Nighter, but am coming off an 8-5 week
that I lost two games on the backs of late scratches (Westbrook and Palmer), so
I’m feeling good.

Indy (-3) at HOUSTON

Once Mark Twain’s wife, annoyed
by his constant swearing, decided to cure him of the habit by swearing,
herself. Twain listened to it for a while, and then told his wife, “The
words are right, but the rhythm is wrong.”

That’s how I feel about this Indy team.  They still have Peyton Manning, Addai should
be a top-5 back in the league, Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne are still the
wideouts, a properly-rated (he’s the only center in the league who gets talked
about, and with good reason) Jeff Saturday but while the players are all there,
watch a couple minutes of their games and something seems off. 

Combine that with the fact that I’m not ready to give up on Houston yet – they
haven’t played a home game, and their defense should be really good – and still game screams “bet the
Texans.”  But for some reason I
can’t.  Maybe the rhythm is wrong, but
I’ve heard the words “Manning to Harrison for
six” too many times to give up just yet.

Without actually going back and looking at results, it seems
like Houston
always plays well against Indy at home. 
But this is really a statement game for Indy, so I actually think
they’ll hand like 42 on a vastly overrated Houston D.

Tennessee (-3) at BALTIMORE

Joe Flacco is going to beat the best defense in the NFL?  Maybe. 
Kerry Collins is many things, but a quick-strike QB is not one of them,
that means Baltimore
is going to be able to line up and take its shots on defense.  I can see a game where Ray Lewis and co
capitalizes on a couple defensive risk, gives the rook with the big arm a
couple chances to make it a game, and you’ve got yourself an upset. 

With that said, Tennessee
might legitimately be the best team in the AFC, and while Harbaugh can run a
mean special teams, he ain’t no Jeff Fisher just yet.

MIAMI (+7) over San Diego

So Miami’s
gimmick offense isn’t going to work again, but so what? Lets look at what it
taught us: the lesson isn’t that that Ronnie Brown is the new Tomlinson, or
that running backs are the new quarterbacks, the lesson is that Miami’s
coaching staff is innovative, not afraid to think outside of the box, and will
find ways to get it’s playmakers in position to make plays.

Not a bad game to parlay down though, the 2-2 Chargers have
no business losing this game.

CAROLINA (-9.5) over Kansas City

I try not to ever cherry picks stats, facts, or tidbits from
other writers, but this one was too good to let go.  Via Peter King:

Thirty-two years ago, the two coaches in this game
– John Fox andHerman Edwards – were defensive backs at San Diego State.

In other news, you can tell I’m not confident in this game
because I switched picks when it dropped from 10 to 9.5.  That said, Delhomme is reaffirming my belief
that tendons in your legs > tendons in your arm (UPDATE: I’ve been informed
that I have no idea how Tommy John
surgery actually works); and Julius Peppers is a monster.

DETROIT (+3.5) over Chicago

I feel crazy for picking this game – Detroit
is awful and Chicago
is not – but this seems like a classic trap game for the Bears.  Chicago
is coming off a lucky win in prime time and just suspended their best defensive
player (Tommie Harris).  They’re going to
be both relieved and uneven, it seems like it would be a weird locker room this
week.  On the other hand, the Dey-twa
crowd is going to be trying to blow the ceiling off that place this week – Matt
Millen is finally gone, it’s been a total celebration there, why would that
stop?

Plus my fantasy team is littered with the Kitnas, Williamses,
and Megatrons of the world, so I’ve going to be blinding banging the Detroit pick all year.

Ruben chimes in: 

Again
with no proof: Detroit ALWAYS beats Chicago
at home.  All they need to do is show
Millen’s face on the Jumbotron and this
crowd will go out of its mind for 3 hours.

Atlanta (+7) at GREEN BAY

I still think Green
Bay is stacked 1-53, but I just can’t give 7 points to
a team that is either throwing an injured Aaron Rodgers trying to prove he can
take as many painkillers as the man he replaced, or JaMarcus Russell’s college
backup.

Seattle (+7.5) over NEW YORK FOOTBALL GIANTS

Seattle
needed that buy week like Eli needs Plaxico.

DENVER (-3) over Tampa Bay

I know Denver’s
defense can’t stop anyone, but isn’t their big-time passing game relevant
enough to make it a moot point?  Cutler
to Marshall in
the light air is too much for me to pass up.

The Patriots (-3) at SAN FRANCISCO  

Love em or hate them, the Patriots don’t often get
fooled.  After Ronnie Brown the Dolphins
embarrassed them with their spread option offense, the Pats are going to be
gearing up for revenge.

Plus you really think Bill Belichick is losing to Mike Nolan?  Not with two full weeks to prepare he’s not.

Buffalo (-1) at ARIZONA

Has there ever been a more ‘Stanford QB’ name than ‘Trent
Edwards?’ I’ll check ….

…

…

Nope, there has not. 

Cincinatti (+17) at DALLAS

I don’t know if we can call Ocho Cinco an elite wideout
anymore, but if we can that’s bad news for T.O., who always seems to be on the
receiving end of the stick in what he imagines to be marquee matchups.  Kiss that Star C-JOC, Kiss that Star.

That said, is isn’t going to be a close game.  Will it get to 17? Who knows, total
crapshhot. Stay away from this game.

JACKSONVILLE (-4) over Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh’s
top two backs are injured, they’re line is either banged up or awful, and
they’re facing their third consecutive hard-hitting defense – this time with
short rest on the road.

Also, no one is pointing this out, but Pittsburgh came out of the box with a lot of
hype and had looked pretty bad.  I know
Peter King believes Mike Tomlin was sent from heaven to coach in the NFL, but
it possible that Coach Epps isn’t the pro coach everyone made him out to be?

NEW
ORLEANS (-3.5) over Minnesota

So it turns out Minnesota
stinks.  Jared Allen is useless without
the booze, it turns out that it doesn’t matter if you can run in this league anymore, and big
dumb linebackers can’t guard the Reggie Bushes of the world.  This is especially unfortunate because
they’re playing, well, you know.

PHILLY (-6) over
Redskins

This game is impossible to bet without knowing whether or
not Westbrook is going to play.  That
said, a 6 line means Vegas believes he’s in, and Vegas tends to know more about
these things than you or I do.  If he
does, the Birds are six points better than Dan Synder and his expensive injured
list.

Last Week: 8-5

Season: 31-28-1

This entry was posted on Friday, October 3rd, 2008 at 12:23 pm and is filed under NFL picks, big money, gambling. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.