Staff Blog
Ryan Howard is the MVP(OTW: Of The Week)
This might not be a popular stance right about now, but can we not get ahead of ourselves on the Ryan Howard MVP thing?
Every year some guy having a mediocre year has a hot September and the MVP talk starts up. Can we look at this objectively?
Ryan Howard may be the player of the week, and when all is said and done, player of the month. But MVP? By many objective measures, Howard, over the course of the entire season, is between the second and fifth most valuable player on his own team, let alone in baseball.
He’s tied for second in OPS on the Phils with Pat Burrell at 873. Utley’s 910 bests them both.
He’s FIFTH in VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) over at Baseball Prospectus. His 27.8 trails Utley (56.4) by half, Rollins (41.5), Burrell (31.0) and Werth (27.8). And that’s not counting pitchers Hamels (52.6), Moyer (36.8) and Myers (29.6)
But how can that be when he leads the world in HR and RBI? Well, his planet-leading 45 HR are impressive, as are his 136 RBI. The HR are all his doing; kid’s strong. The 136 RBI are partially a product of having high On Base Percentage guys like Utley (.377), Werth (.373), Burrell (.370) and even Jimmy Rollins (.347) ahead of him in the order. Meanwhile, Howard’s .332 OBP is dismal for him (2006: .425, 2007: .392) and abysmal compared to the league’s leaders.
Who cares about OBP when he’s driving in all those runs? I’ll admit that Howard’s been opportunistic, which only partially excuses the fact that he makes a LOT of outs — that .332 OBP means that he’s not getting on base, i.e. making outs, 67 percent of the time. A guy like Utley has made outs just 62 percent of the time. Chipper Jones has made outs just 53 percent of the time.
Howard’s having a great month. But let’s remember that games in April count the same as games in September — in the standings if not in our memories. And that carrying a team for a month should not be confused with carrying a team for a year.
Like Utley much? Howard is hitting over .300 w/RISP while the your man-crush is hitting less than .250. Production is what matters in the end. If Utley’s great beginning of the season can still give him less than deserved accolades deep into Sept, then Howard’s REAL production should grant him some forgiveness for the abyssmal start to his season.
Steve:
First of all, let me make it clear that my argument is not that Utley should be MVP. Utley’s having a fine year. It’s a season that includes a scorching hot first half and a solid but unspectacular second half. All told, his season ranks 8th best in the NL, at this point, according to Baseball Prospectus’ VORP, and 10th best according to OPS. Howard’s season includes a hack-tastic first half during which he made outs at a prodigious rate, a red-hot September that’s gotten his season up to 33rd in VORP and 20th in OPS. Granted, having the 33rd or 20th best season in the NL isn’t shabby, and I love BOTH of these guys, but to say either of them is more valuable than Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez or Lance Berkman this season is succumbing to a bit of unabashed homerism and selective memory.
Second, “less than deserved accolades”? Do you, like, hate Utley?
Third, please define “REAL production.”
Ask the Mets & the Brew Crew about games in April vs games in September …
Of course it is statistically true – but that is just a sleight of hand. You know all those rabbits in the Tour de France – their kph early count as much as the kph late, technically – when you are measuring ground covered.
But as you well know Brian late is late & clutch is clutch & they are freaking important when you are actually in the game.
Ryan has been awe-and then-some here late and here in the clutch.
Give it up to him. It really does count, and it really does indicate something. He’s special
I agree, he needs to get in the groove earlier if he wants another MVP award, that’s not in hte offing this year – but if Ryan & the Phils continue this rocket ride – he may well just be this season’s real most valuable player.
My thoughts:
Howard is hitting .300 with runners on, .315 with RISP and .318 with RISP and two outs. That does mitigate some of the case against him. If he was hitting .300 with the bases empty as well he’d be walking away the award with only marginally better peripheral stats. He’s hit when he feels like it matters (which is another, far bigger problem, imo)
That said, while it would be foolish to argue that Howard has had a better season than Pujols, Hanley, or Fat Elvis, but I’d argue that you could say he’s been more valuable than they have.
rats – bad move to bring up ‘late and close’ situations. Ryan is hitting all of .146 in them.
.146? sheeeesh, that is bad
But what I was trying to say, and failed to say, is this:
now when it is late (in the season), and now when it is clutch, Ryan is hitting the cover off the ball
And god bless him for that.