Staff Blog
Right Now, Ryan Braun is your NL MVP
As the baseball season turns it’s final month for the first
time in what seems like a long time (fact check: one year) the NL MVP race is
still wide open, and not wide open in the rhetorical sportswriter meme where
“every vote counts” but wide open in the sense that I’ve read
legitimate arguments for probably about 15 candidates.
I’ve seen that Chase is the odds-on favorite, read that Aramis Ramirez is going to emerge from the pack, heard that it’s between Pujols and Lance Berkman for the
belt and even had people
believe that the Kenesaw Mountain Landis Award is Carlos Delgado’s, or Ryan
Ludwick’s, or CC Sabathia’s to lose. And
all of that is without delving into the layers of nonsense that commenters can
come up with.
With that in mind, I’m going to dive into the stats, the
standings, and the rest of the season to see who can, should, and will be the
2008 National League MVP. One man’s MVP
Ballot …
Obvious caveat: A lot can change in a month. If Miss Davis
from Varsity Blues can beat out Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty for the chance to
kiss babies, attend funerals and shoot friends in the face next to McCain for
four years, it is plausible that any of two dozen more names could come
up. That said, in descending order and
increasing in interest …
 |
| the NL MVP award |
10. Chipper Jones
Oh Chipper, remember when you were going to hit .400?
9. Lance Berkman
Fat Elvis is second in runs, second in SLG, second in OPS,
third in OBP, third in BA, forth in walks, 9th in RBI.
… For a bush league team, and all in the first half of the
season.
8. Ryan Howard
Set aside the batting average – and maybe you should, he
hits .280 with runners on – and he probably becomes the favorite. He’s leading the league in home runs and RBI
and won’t lose either lead. He’s feared,
he can hit it out to anywhere in the park and he has the cred of one trophy on
his mantle already.
On the flip side he’s batting .236, he can’t hit lefties to
save his life and he’s not in the top twenty in slugging. It’s all or nothing for the big lefty, and in
this race, it’s nothing.
7. David Wright
I had Wright higher until I took a closer look at his
numbers. He is second in the league RBI, forth in runs, top ten in hits and
doubles. Plus he’s the reigning gold
glove third basemen and playing for a contending team in a high-pressure
market.
Still, he’s not top ten in HRs, BA, OBP, SLUG, or OPS. Nor is he better than the showboat who he
keeps driving in. He might win (baseball
writers of America
love themselves RBI) but he shouldn’t.
6. Hanley Ramirez
A serious case can be made that Hanley Ramirez is the best
offensive player in major league baseball.
He leads the league in runs, and is top ten in HRs, BBs, SB, OBP, SLG,
and OPS. He’s one home run away from
another 30-30 season and has been the sparkplug for a surprise team.
Plus he has Reyes-esque charisma. If he was in a bigger market you would see
his face on your magazines and video games, and his name on your jersey. He’s awesome.
That said, his team fell apart just as voters started paying
attention. Not this year Hanley, but one
day.
5. Chase Utley
The early season favorite, Utley is 5th in home runs, top
ten in slugging, runs, and OPS. Plus
he’s giving you that production from second base, which is virtually unheard
of.
Chase has the most to gain from a big September – the NL
East race means that the lights will be brightest, and if goes on a tear like
he the one he was on earlier this year to propel the Phillies to the crown he
should be in good shape to take home the award.
4. Aramis Ramirez
This is admittedly probably a product of seeing him hit that
game-winning grand slam off of us last week, but Ramirez has been the most
productive player on the league’s best team, and like it or not, that means
something.
The Cubs lead the league in come-from-behind victories, and
Ramirez – who leads the majors in RBI from the 7th on – is the
reason why. It’s not a voter-friendly
stat, but his “late
and close” numbers are off the charts.
I stole this stat from the link above, but in 83 plate appearances (a legit sample size), Ramirez’s OBP is
.530. That means that the game is on the line Ramirez is literally more likely
than not to reach base. In a game where getting on base is kinda important, that’s absurd.
Also, this is a late season award and Ramirez is leading the
majors in RBI in August, and has been the engine behind the league’s best
offense.
He finishes out of the top ten in runs, hits, OPS and home
runs, and his .276 batting average will (and should) eliminate him from winning
the thing, but he needs to be more in the discussion.
3. Jose Reyes
Jose Reyes is leading the league in hits – by 20. It’s well documented how much
better Wright, Beltran and Delgado hit when he’s on base, and he’s spent the
entire summer on base. Plus he’s
electric, charismatic, and the heart of the team. In the recent series against the Phils he led
the entire team in wind sprints just absorbing the boos.
But … he’s a leadoff guy with a pretty good OBS and no power.
Hard to win that way.
2. Albert Pujols
Jose Alberto is leading the league in batting average,
on-base percentage and slugging
percentage (and, obviously, OPS). He’s
the most feared hitter in the league – his 32 IBBs are more than double the
next guy – and rightly so. He has 30
homers – 7th in the league – and 91 RBIs. He has 23 more walks than Ryan Howard and (no
joke) 135 less Ks.
He’s probably the most valuable in the traditional sense -
his team blows still has a better record than the Phillies – but his inability
to get the Cards to postseason may hurt him. As will the moment that voters see that he’s
not leading his own team (a non-playoff team at that) in HRs or RBI.
1. Ryan Braun
The Hebrew Hammer (greatest Jewish themed sports nickname
since THIS GUY) is leading the league in extra base hits and has become the
offensive face of a franchise headed to the playoffs for the first time since
he’s been alive.
The reigning ROY
is also third in the league in home runs, sixth in RBIs, fifth in doubles, hitting
over .300, ahead of Chase Utley and Hanley Rarmirez in OPS and has stolen 11
bags for good measure.
On top of all that Buster Olney recently broke down the stats and anointed him
the best hitter against good pitching in the game.
I don’t think he wins – he has been steady as opposed to
spectacular – but as the only guy on a potential playoff team who can be on this list he has to be
considered. If he does get the hardware
it will be because the big twos – Pujols & Ludwick, Reyes & Wright,
Utley & Howard, and Ramirez & Soto, all cancel each other out.
I say they should.
