After finishing last season perfect against the spread (you
heard me … prove otherwise) I’m back and better than ever, ready to make you
some cash and expel my thoughts on the league.

It’s the hated first-week of the season, where no one really
knows what to expect from teams.  It can
either be a coup for gamblers (Vegas hasn’t seen anyone) or you can get killed
(”Favre is winning the MVP, I can feel it!”). 
I’m here to help.

My pick will always be the first one listed. Home team in
caps, “over” if I’m picking a home team and “at” if it’s a roader.  All lines as of Thursday morning.

THE NEW
YORK FOOTBALL GIANTS (-4) over Washington

The Superbowl Champions are opening at home, which is a pick I always run with.  This Giants team isn’t going to win another
Superbowl (their team was built around their DEnds, and they lost their two best), and no part of their team particularly scares me, but they’re back
playing in New York
for the first time as Champions, there is no
way a rookie head coach knocks these guys tonight.

Detroit (-3) at ATLANTA

Rookie head coach starting a rookie QB with a rookie left
tackle.  Plus when Kitna, Roy Williams
and Megatron are all healthy they can put up numbers – I expect this to be a
blowout, I expect to be rich by 4:15.

Plus … I’ve been told that Matt Ryan ain’t nothing but a pair of shoes anyway.

BUFFALO(-1) over Seattle

What a random matchup.  There should be an
NFL injunction that two teams like this should never be allowed to play
each other.  Smart money says that fans of both teams aren’t even excited
for this game.

As for the game itself, Seattle
is a pass-first team without any wideouts (they’re missing Deion Branch, Bobby
Engram and Ben Obamanu) and Buffalo can’t decide where it’s home should be.

BALTIMORE (+1.5) over
Cinci

I hate this game. 
B-More is starting Joe Flacco, who entered the record books when he
became the first starting QB to go an entire fantasy-draft season and never be
drafted by anyone, but Cincinnati’s best player spent the offseason begging for
a change and changing his name to something that translates to “eight five”,
proving once and for all that he’s insane. 
I’m taking BMore because I gotta pick someone, and visiting that city
isn’t fun for anyone – which gives them an advantage.

Houston (+6.5) at PITTSBURGH

I really like Houston’s
D – my ‘Mario Williams is going to be awful’ prediction blew up in my face, and
Amobi Okoye and DeMarco Ryans are the truth. They’re going to struggle in that
division (who isn’t?) but outside of it they should roll.  I also think the Steelers are absurdly
overrated this year – their offensive line isn’t any good and Willie Parker
can’t get in the endzone.

Plus one time in college Big Ben seriously put on the moves
on one of my close friends and was firmly rebuffed – she thought he was
ridiculous.  If you can’t make out with
Allegra I’m not going to pick you to beat the Texans by a touchdown.  My game, my rules.

Jacksonville (-3) at TENNESSEE

I hate the term “game manager” to describe a quarterback,
mainly because usually it’s a simple euphemism for someone 1. old and 2.
unathletic, but also because the stereotype detracts from a great
description.  A game manager should be
someone with an accurate arm, enough athleticism to keep the chains moving, and
enough smarts not to turn the ball over. 
If you have a guy like that, an authentic running game and a powerful
defense you can win a lot of games.  The
Jags do. 

Plus, for years I’ve thought V.Young was a
troublemaker.  He stands away from the
team during timeouts, he complains after wins when he doesn’t play well, he
picks up delay of game penalties for throwing the ball away, he threatens to
quit football because he doesn’t like it anymore.  I think the QB position is about leadership
and I’m not sure if Rose Bowl has it.

Tampa Bay at NEW
ORLEANS (-3.5)

Tampa
is decent, right? They were a playoff team last year and it feels like they
haven’t changed anything.  They’re well
coached, disciplined and have been together for awhile.  That stuff matters early in the season.

And lets not forget that Vegas knows what they’re looking
it.  If they see all of New Orleans’ skill positions guys and aren’t
impressed I’m not going to be either.

KANSAS CITY (+16.5) over New England

16.5 is a lot of points, and after last year – when the Pats
make every down a ‘fuck you’ down and rubbed it in teams faces day in and day
out – don’t you think they’ll have learned their lesson about blowing their
load in the regular season and slow it down a bit?  I feel like New England
is going to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible, not show anything
and keep the league guessing on whether or not Brady might be a little hurt.

That said, I do not feel confident betting on Brodie Croyle
over Tom Brady – I feel like the Pats could not show anything and still win 31-10.  I’ll pick it because I have to, but no money goes down on this nonsense. 

Not that this game is all bad, I did get this conversation from it:

Friend (name withheld, for obvious reasons):  I
like NE to murder KC.  KC is probly the worst team in football, and NE the
best.  that’s gotta count for more than 17 points, right?

Me: I duno, you saw my logic: they know they’ll murk em, they’ll keep it
close to the chest – treat it like a glorified preseason game

Friend:  speaking
of murking, did you know that a “merkin” is a vaginal wig

Me:  I
did not know that

The more you know?

JetsJetsJets (-3) at MIAMI

I’ve changed this pick three four five times now. 

On one hand everyone talks so much about how hard it is for
a QB to learn a new system, how important the system is, and how knowing where
players are going to be is vital for the game of football.  Well, while the next 25 yard corner out that
Chad Pennington throws will be his first, he knows that Jets system inside and
out, and no one is questioning his accuracy. 

On the other, the main problem with dink-and-dunk QBs is
that they’re out there tossing water balloons and waiting for their tight end
to break free so long that eventually they get broken in half by a d-lineman
who sheds a block at just the right time. 
Pennington is being protected by a rookie left tackle and all those Jets
know that, they’re going to go all out in hopes of getting that crushing blow.

I originally thought ‘Jets in a no-brainer,’ but then I realized that the Jets are like the Bears back when the Eagles
got good.  They had one really lucky season where everything went right
and they made the playoffs.  then they followed up with an awful season; everyone assumed they’d had a down year and would be good again,
but it turned out their good year was the abberation. I say same thing happens with the Jets.

UPDATE: Fuck it, I’m going with them anyway. As you might be able to tell I’m torn on this pick.

Zona (-2.5) at SAN FRANCISCO

Kurt Warner takes hits like Peter McNeeley, but it’s the
first week of the season, which means that’s still standing.  As long as that’s true, and he’s got Larry
Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin to throw to they’ll put some points on the
board.  I’m not yet comfortable assuming
that J.T. O’Sullivan will so the same.

It is worth nothing that those Zona-SF always seem to get crazy.  A 41-38 game with 2 defensive and 2 special teams TDs wouldn’t surprise me in the least.

Carolina (+9) at SAN DIEGO

Shawn Merriman is falling apart at the seams and by all reports
has yet to juice himself back together. 
Take him away from that defense and they’re a different team.  Plus Delhomme
coming back from
Tommy John surgery doesn’t scare me in the least.  TJ is like the HGH of arm
repair … it has left pitchers stronger and more confident in their throws for
years, why would it not work the same way with a QB? 

If I was a top flight pitching prospect in the 10^th
grade, I’d get it electively – who wouldn’t want a better, stronger ligament in
their arm?  In my mind it’s the first
step to a world inhabited by Terminators.

As an aside I’m predicting big things for Julius Peppers, due in no small part to the fact that he won the MVP in Madden 07 last year (beat out Troy Smith in an epic battle). Hell of a year he put up.

Dallas (-5.5) at CLEVELAND

Two teams that disgust me, I hate that this is a good enough
game that I’m really going to want to watch it anyway.

Some quick thoughts: Derek Anderson sucks.  All last year he was a shaky QB with a big
arm who would toss lucky bombs into the hands of giant receivers, that isn’t a
repeatable pattern for success.  On top
of that, everything the Browns do well the Cowboys do better.  Romo > DA in the battle of
unheralded QBs who came out of nowhere and ended up in the pro bowl last year.
TO > Braylon is the battle of elite wideouts, and Marion Barber trumps the
hell out of a washed up Jamal Lewis in the battle of the power backs.  Add in the fact that the Cowboys defense has
talent up and down it and this looks like a mismatch to me.  

Chicago (+9.5) at INDY

Nine and a half is absurd – you’re telling me that a team
based on timing and decision making (Indy) isn’t going to be seriously
disrupted by the loss of Jeff Saturday, who called all the line shifts?  I can tell you now Tommy Harris doesn’t
believe that.

GREEN BAY (-3) over Minnesota

The Packers are really good; Adrian Peterson is still
splitting carries; and Aaron Rodgers can’t
be worst than Tarvaris Jackson.  Plus
it’s not like the Green Bay
crowd is going to turn on the Pack.

OAKLAND (+3) at Denver

Denver’s quarterback has type-1
diabetes (am I the only person in America who believes this to be a
problem for a professional quarterback?), doesn’t have his #1 wideout because
he got suspended for rolling with a couple of road sodas, and is giving up
three on the road. 

I’ll take Run DMC and the home crowd here.

PHILLY (-7.5) over St. Louis

Never mind the reports from St. Louis that Steven Jackson might not get a
full workload; 5 always looks sick early in every season, and the Rams are
pretty awful.  Look for DeSean Jackson to
break one long play and for the Philadelphia
media to immediately hail him as the second coming.

I do not expect this one to be close.

Last Week: n/a

Season: undefeated

This entry was posted on Thursday, September 4th, 2008 at 4:41 pm and is filed under NFL picks, football, gambling. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.