Staff Blog
One man’s take on De La Hoya/Mayweather
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| Eric, yo bref smell |
| edni.com |
Two images have been running on loop in my head during the run up to the Fight to Save Boxing, aka Saturday’s grudge match between Floyd Mayweather and Oscar De La Hoya. (Well, three, if you consider the recollections of Paulie’s Robot, but that’s neither here nor there for the purposes of this post).
The first: Oscar crumbling like week-old coffee cake when our own Bernard Hopkins put him down with a ferocious body shot in the ninth round of their Sept. 18, 2004 bout .
The second: Floyd just absolutely decimating Jersey-fave Arturo Gatti right before my very eyes at A.C.’s Boardwalk Hall on June 25, 2005 .
Both were stunning examples of the controlled brutality that makes boxing the sport that it is. But here’s the thing: I’m not sure they’ll mean all that much come Saturday night when Vegas hosts its biggest fight in God knows how many years. (And, quite frankly, an event that’s sure to top any brawl to come in its wake for quite some time.)
All of which is to say: I’m not going to let recent history dictate prognostication here. For one thing, every fight is an event unto itself; that B Hop put the Golden Boy down like that doesn’t guarantee Floyd can. Having been glued to HBO’s stellar docu-mercial Mayweather/De La Hoya 24/7 for the past three weeks (the fourth, and final, half-hour installment airs tonight), what I’m seeing are two guys who genuinely loathe one another (and there really seem to be some cultural differences in play here; young, black, thug-ish type vs. Latino family man): Floyd, because he sees Oscar and coddled, over-rated and loaded; Oscar, because he sees Floyd as an arrogant, less-loaded little prick. And that’s why I can’t wait till the bell finally rings.
And when it does? Well, here’s how I see it shaking out (and be sure to check out the video at the end of the post).
Oscar comes out quick, leaning on Floyd, using his weight advantage to his benefit, pushing him around the ring and making Floyd learn quick that there’s much more power when you come up to 154 pounds. And early, it’ll seem that Floyd’s in trouble. But know this: He will not tire, and he will not hit the canvas. Too much pride, too much arrogance to let ‘em see him sweat. (Having interviewed him, though, I found it to be less arrogance than confidence and a motivational need to feel slighted, ala A.I. For his part, Oscar seemed a bit more mature, not that that really means a damn thing when it comes to brawling.)
From there, say in the 5th, 6th, 7th rounds – with the cards close, but favoring Oscar –Floyd’s defensive prowess (and the insider info that only his dad, Oscar’s former trainer, can provide, despite all this hub-bub about their falling out) will start to show. Oscar won’t be able to get the good shots in, and Floyd will tattoo him with a couple, possibly even staggering him.
But then, like Daily News boxing guru Bernard Fernandez pointed out the other day, his ever-questionable hands will start to hurt. Maybe even break. Oh, he’ll keep fighting alright, but he’ll have no chance to knock De La Hoya out like Craig did Deebo on Friday. And, De La Hoya will not put Floyd down either. It’ll be brutal, and their exchanges will remind people why they loved boxing in the first place. Not to sound like a shill, but it’ll be an exhibition well worth shelling out $50-plus for.
There’ll be cuts and low blows and raucous fans still amped up from their Kentucky Derby winnings.
Then it’ll come down to the cards.
One’ll be 115-113 Floyd.
The next’ll be 116-112 Oscar.
And the final card will be 114-114.
A draw. (Yet, people will still feel as if they've gotten their money's worth)
[Update: Judges Chuck Giampa (116-112) and Jerry Roth (115-113) scored the fight for Mayweather. Tom Kaczmarek (115-113) scored in favor of De La Hoya. While De La Hoya appeared to win the twelfth round, Jerry Roth gave it to Mayweather. Had Roth scored the final round for De La Hoya, his card would have read 114-114 and the fight would have been ruled a draw.]
Because this is boxing, and when you have a fight this big, with no more events waiting in the wings, the only rational prediction involves a rematch. That Floyd wins. And cements himself as the greatest pound-for-pounder we’ll see in quite some time. Maybe ever again.
[...] Now that the Mayweather/De La Hoya stuff is out of the way, look to Pavlik to finally inject some life back into the sweetest science (Truth be told, it wasn’t a fluke knockout; Pavlik fought a damn good fight, fending off Taylor’s best and countering when he needed it most). No, it’s not right, but the fact of the matter is a white champion offers promoters endless opportunities to sell their fights to a wider audience. Can’t imagine it’ll be too long before we see a rematch of this one. [...]