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August 24-30, 2006

City Beat : Philly Blunt

How They'll Do

I 'd like to talk to you today about the beauty of gambling because, let's face it people, you have to wager to win in this cold, dark world. Well thanks to the "good" people at wagerweb.com, it's now possible to — their words — "predict if John Mark Karr fabricated his confession of murdering America's sweetheart, 6-year-old beauty queen JonBenet Ramsey." Put up a buck twenty on either side and you'll turn a cool $100.

It's easy money if you don't mind cashing in on others' pain or gambling on children in general, like a handful of folks (herein remaining nameless) who've turned the kiddie games at Citizens Bank Park into a Dade County dog track.

So anyway, after comparing the photos of a clearly dosed Karr getting led on a Thai perp walk to mirror images of Lee Harvey, that madman, en route to Jack Ruby's gun, I cry scam. (Scam!) As best I can tell, the world found another patsy to drag around in the name of closure (and distracting the masses). In other hypothetical words, my loot'd fall on the fabrication side, but since it'd take a real degenerate to buck up in such a manner, let's praise Jesus that the Eagles' season (read: America's Gambling Session) starts in a mere 17 days.

I didn't need a calendar to know kickoff was close; quite a few folks have been asking whether I plan to dip my pen tip back into the "How They'll Lose" inkwell for another season of jinx-taunting prognostication (www.citypaper.net/lose.) So many, in fact, that I dove into the CP vault to determine whether I left a Jordan-sized faux-retirement escape hatch when I called the column quits last November. Riffing on the team's "failed conjugal visit" with an outgoing paramour, I realized they'd tumbled past the point where superstition could help, yet reserved "the right to return ... when the time is deemed right."

Well, the time isn't right. Victory is anything but a foregone conclusion this upcoming season. Concocting sarcastic scenarios in which they lose games everybody's mama knows they could win just won't cut it. But that doesn't mean CP can't bring you a little NFL season preview. Not by a long shot, yo.

So with no further ado, here's one take on how the Birds will fare in Year 1, A.T.O.

Consider what the folks in Vegas are thinking: In the March pro football futures sheet from Leroy's Race and Sports Book, the Eagles were 20-1 shots to win Super Bowl XXXXI, a noteworthy fact considering each of their divisional foes had shorter odds (Washington, 10-1; Dallas 12-1 and the Giants 15-1.) Five months later, another Web site kept the Birds at the bottom of the division (a 22-1 shot.) The fine men and women of Sin City's bookmaking operations figure the team will, at best, finish in the middle of the NFC pack. Well guess what? I'm not buying it. In fact, I'm almost feelin' that No. 5 didn't lose all touch with reality last week when he deemed his squad a Super Bowl contender.

Granted, short of a recovered Brian Westbrook, a repaired Correll Buckhalter, a returned-to-running Donovan McNabb and a for-real Hank Baskett (or so I've heard), there's nary an offensive weapon opponents will really have to focus their game plan on. But I'm one of those people who think this defense is badass enough to take the team on a deep-into-the-postseason ride much in the way that Ray Lewis brought a parade to Baltimore, or what I like to call the syphilis capital of America.

As much as one can look at an NFL schedule before the season and discern anything about how teams will look a few months down the road, this year's slate seems pretty amenable. Take a look at the first half of the season; before the Nov. 5 bye, each game looks winnable. But they won't be.

The Birds'll start 3-0 (at Houston, Giants, at San Fran) before dropping a shocker of a home Monday Night game to Green Bay. It's not that the Packers are any better — they actually blow — but a certain team will regrettably look ahead a week to the Oct. 8 return of the Irvin cart. After a BIG win, it's off to N'Awlins (win), Tampa (loss) and home for Jacksonville (loss). Into the bye week at 5-3, they'll storm out and beat Washington and Tennessee; lose at Indy; beat Carolina and Washington; lose at the Giants and at a well-rested Dallas on Christmas Day before wrapping up the season with a win over Atlanta.

Ten and 6. Good enough for the wild-card spot they'll grab after losing a tiebreaker to the Giants, who will take the NFC East thanks to strength-of-victory. From there, it's really anybody's bet. If they catch a decent draw, No. 5 might be right which means neither 22-1 odds nor dreams of a long-awaited parade are unrealistic. Or, the lack of scoring threats will manifest itself in a Carolina-NFC-Championship-game kinda way. Who knows?

But if you'll excuse me, I gotta get back online. There's a certain bit of Colorado-based action I ought to get in on before another false confession and digested jumbo prawns are beaten out of somebody.

(hickey@citypaper.net)

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