Dicked Again

by J.J. Balaban

Splashed across the front pages of newspapers across the nation last month was a report that Vice President Dick Cheney was interested in running for re-election with President Bush in 2004, despite his fragile heart condition and the ongoing investigation of Halliburton’s business practices while he was the CEO. However, these stories failed to note that there is one person more interested in Cheney running for re-election than Cheney himself: George W. Bush.

In the first place, dumping an incumbent vice president just isn't done nowadays. Switching vice presidents was commonplace during the 19th century, when they were obscure figures who were excluded from most executive branch decisions and primarily presided over the Senate. Between 1832 and 1916, no incumbent vice president was re-nominated to the position. (In part, this may have been because the post tended to kill those who were elected to it; no fewer than five vice presidents died while in office during that period.) However, no incumbent president has dumped his elected vice president while running for re-election since Franklin Roosevelt sacked Vice President Henry Wallace for Harry Truman in 1944.

There was rampant speculation that George H.W. Bush would replace Dan Quayle in 1992, but it never amounted to anything because in today's media environment, replacing a vice president would be a sign of weakness and would imply that the president had made a mistake when he originally selected his running mate. Moreover, selecting a new vice presidential nominee exposes the ticket to a great deal of uncertainty regarding what the media will uncover once it digs deeply into the new nominee's background and how the new nominee will handle that scrutiny. Ultimately, it's not surprising that presidents these days choose the veep they know, over the veep they don't.

But there's a specific reason why George W. wants Cheney to run for re-election with him. Imagine, if you will, that President Bush is re-elected. Who is the Republican Party going to select to succeed him? Predictions about presidential nominees six years in the future are to be taken with a truckload of salt and, theoretically, it could be anyone. But since 1964, the "establishment" front-runner at the beginning of the primary campaign has gone on to win the Republican presidential nomination. So who is in the best position to be that front-runner in 2008?

John McCain will be too old. Colin Powell has given every indication that he is not interested in running for president. It is unlikely that the Republican Party will nominate someone who favors abortion rights -- like Tom Ridge or Rudy Giuliani -- to head the ticket in the foreseeable future. John Ashcroft has the resumé and the national profile and he could count on fervent conservative support. But he would have to overcome the difficult obstacle of being perceived as too conservative to win. And, of course, there's the stigma that comes from losing his senatorial seat to a dead man. Trent Lott? Tom DeLay? Doubtful.

Mega-state governors have traditionally been a fertile ground for Republican nominees. But of the eight most populous states, the Republican nominees in seven of them are trailing their opponents (Pennsylvania, Illinois, Michigan and California) or are incumbents with no known national ambitions (Texas, Ohio and New York). A governor from a smaller state, such as Colorado's Bill Owens, could toss his hat in the ring, but he is unlikely to possess the national profile and contacts to be the establishment front-runner.

Of course, there is a Republican governor from the most populous swing state in the country who is known to have national ambitions. He is expected to cruise to re-election this fall and complete his second term in January of 2007, just in time to be a full-time candidate for the 2008 nomination. He is well-regarded by conservatives, but is in the mainstream of the Republican Party. Most importantly, if he ran for president, he would have invaluable support -- at least implicitly -- from George W. Bush's White House. I'm referring, of course, to Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.

There's no question that being succeeded by his brother holds great appeal to George W. Beyond fraternal loyalty, there would be no greater endorsement of W's tenure or testament to W's legacy than installing his brother to succeed him.

At this point, the biggest obstacle to Jeb's winning the 2008 nomination would be an incumbent vice president vying for a promotion. For the past 50 years, every incumbent vice president who has sought the nomination for the top job has received it. That's why W.'s top criterion for a vice president is someone who is not going to seek the nomination. Because nobody fits that bill better than Cheney, it's a safe bet Republicans will be able to recycle their "Bush-Cheney" bumper stickers in 2004.

J.J. Balaban is a Democratic political consultant based in Lower Merion. If you would like to respond to this Slant or have one of your own (850 words), contact Howard Altman, City Paper executive editor, 123 Chestnut St., third floor, Phila., PA 19106 or e-mail altman@citypaper.net.