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May 16-22, 2002 cover story Keys to the Kingdom
So what will it take to win the Democratic primary for governor? For answers, we talked to a few well-known elected officials, political pundits and policy wonks and asked them to give the candidates some free last-minute advice. What we discovered can be summed up in a nutshell: Rendell needs a big turnout on Election Day to win, and Casey needs to ignore his big-money consultants and show the voters who he really is in the time he has left. We spoke to city Democratic Party chair and Congressman Bob Brady; Larry Ceisler, consultant and Fox News analyst; state Sen. Anthony Hardy Williams; City Council members Darrell Clarke, W. Wilson Goode Jr. and Blondell Reynolds Brown; and City Controller Jonathan Saidel, and we asked each the same question: What is the key to victory for each candidate? Casey - Keys to VictoryBrady: Bobby should run a positive campaign. It may be too late by now, but I think voters wanted to see a positive campaign. I've never used negative campaigning, and I never will. Negative primary campaigns just give the Republicans fuel when they face us in November. They'll bring up the same things that came up during the primary fight. We have a history of family squabbles in the [Democratic] Party, but we're still a family. Ceisler: Casey should use the last week to go positive and really try to articulate his vision for the state. He should try to capitalize on his get out the vote' efforts around the state and rely on good old-fashioned footwork. Williams: Casey needs a heavy turnout in the West, and needs to somehow hold down the vote here in Philadelphia and the suburbs. I think Casey could have run a different campaign and strategically courted the African-American community. Clarke: Casey's apparently understood that the negative side of his campaign has hurt him. There's a shift toward the positive in his latest commercials. [The shift] makes some sense. Goode: There's absolutely nothing Casey can do other than, outside of Southeast Pennsylvania, to push the trust issue above the experience issue. I expect in the end that, if people are concerned about this race and turn out to vote, that experience will win out. Brown: I would tell Casey to discontinue the negative ads. They've been symbolic of what people don't like in campaigns. Tell people what you are for, especially fair funding statewide for our schools. Saidel: My advice to Casey would be to stop bashing Philadelphia because he's still got to be auditor general. Rendell - Keys to VictoryBrady: Ed needs a high turnout here in his home base. It's an interesting race with two qualified candidates, but that's a key. My agreement with both candidates is to sit down after the primary and have the loser endorse the winner to unite the party. Ceisler: It's all on Rendell. If he scores big in Philadelphia, he wins. If he doesn't, he loses. I like the number 35 percent. That's what I think he needs the turnout to be to ensure a victory. The numbers are usually 17, 18 or 22 percent, so he needs a historic turnout. Williams: Rendell needs to win Southeast Pennsylvania, and he needs to win it big. If there's a wobble or misstep by Rendell, or a sudden bump for Casey, it could still go either way. Clarke: It's pretty clear it's about turnout in specific locations. Rendell needs to get a substantial turnout in Philadelphia and the surrounding counties but also has to hold on to some of the support he's been able to garner in the rest of the state. Goode: The polling numbers I've seen show strong support for Rendell in Northeast and Southeast Pennsylvania. He needs to maximize turnout almost exclusively in the Southeast. I think Ed Rendell comes out of Philadelphia and Southeast Pennsylvania with at least 75 percent of the vote. Brown: I would suggest to Ed that he continue to do what he's been doing, telling voters what he is for. What counts on Election Day is getting out the vote. He has to execute the get out the vote' apparatus of his campaign. Saidel: I've been campaigning at El stops with Rendell. I think you have to run hard, because you don't win a race until Election Day. My advice to Rendell is to keep charging toward the finish line. Staff writer Daniel Brook contributed to this report.
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